04-06 17:08 · 中东,局势,AlJazeera,中东
Iran says no direct talks during escalating US-Israeli attacks as Trump’s Hormuz deadline nears.
Amid a dual track of threats and diplomacy, United States President Donald Trump tells reporters he would take Iran’s oil and destroy bridges and power plants.
US-Israeli attacks across Iran have killed at least 34 people, including at least six children.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 17:08 · 国际,新闻,BBC,国际
Albert Mazibuko sang in the iconic South African choral group for more than 55 years.
Ladysmith Black Mambazo's 'wise elder' dies aged 77
Albert Mazibuko, who sang in iconic South African group Ladysmith Black Mambazo for more than five decades, has died aged 77.
The musician's death on Sunday came after a short illness, the choral group posted on their Facebook page.
Mazibuko joined Ladysmith Black Mambazo in 1969 and the collective went on to win five Grammy awards and feature on Paul Simon's acclaimed 1986 Graceland album.
Ladysmith Black Mambazo paid tribute to Mazibuko on Monday, describing him as "kind to a fault" and a "saint" who acted as a "wise elder" for the group's younger members.
"He loved traveling the world, spreading the mission and music of Ladysmith Black Mambazo," the statement said.
"He never tired of talking about the group's history and its desire to spread 'peace, love and harmony' everywhere people had ears to listen."
Mazibuko grew up in the eastern town of uMnambithi, formally known as Ladysmith, and left school early in order to work full-time on a farm.
His cousin, Joseph Shabalala, founded Ladysmith Black Mambazo in 1960 and eventually asked Mazibuko to join.
The group fused indigenous Zulu songs and dances with South African isicathamiya, an acapella tradition frequently accompanied by a soft, shuffling style of dance.
A radio performance in 1970 led to a recording contract, and in 1973 they released Africa's first gold-selling album, Amabutho.
They achieved global recognition after US star Paul Simon recruited them to sing on the multi-million-selling album Graceland. Simon was criticised at the time for breaking the cultural boycott of apartheid South Africa.
Ladysmith Black Mambazo sang songs of hope and unity during the dark decades of that system of legalised racism.
"I was working at a cotton factory... when we came out from work we saw the police, they were lining up," he recalled.
Mazibuko and his colleagues were asked to produce their ID books, tools used by the apartheid regime to restrict the movement of black South Africans.
"If you don't carry it, you're arrested. In my life i was so afraid of being arrested… even now I'm afraid."
The current Ladysmith Black Mambazo line-up is a mix of long-standing members and newer, younger musicians.
The outfit had been touring in the US since February and were due to play their last stateside show on Friday.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 17:08 · 国际,新闻,BBC,国际
More than 100 people, mostly children, have been killed by measles since mid-March, officials suspect.
Emergency jabs after 100 children die of suspected measles in a month in Bangladesh
Bangladesh has launched an emergency vaccination campaign after a fast-spreading measles outbreak is suspected of killing more than 100 people, mostly children, in what may be the country's most lethal wave of the disease in recent history.
The campaign, which began on Sunday, comes amid more than 7,500 suspected measles cases since 15 March, according to health ministry data.
More than 900 of these cases have been confirmed - a sharp increase from 2025, when just 125 measles cases were recorded over the entire year, local media report.
While Bangladesh has long vaccinated children against the highly contagious disease, the recent outbreak has exposed gaps in its programme, raising concern.
"Vaccines are foundational to child survival," Rana Flowers, the Unicef representative in Bangladesh, said in a statement on Sunday, adding that the current measles outbreak was "putting thousands of children, especially the youngest and most vulnerable, at serious risk."
Why is there a spike in measles in Bangladesh?
In Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people, routine measles vaccines are given to children as young as nine months old.
But Shahriar Sajjad, deputy director of the Health Department, told BBC Bangla that about one-third of those infected in the recent outbreak were under nine months old.
The infections of these young infants "who are not yet eligible for routine vaccination, are especially alarming", said Flowers from Unicef.
On top of routine vaccinations, Bangladesh conducts special measles vaccination campaigns every four years.
But these campaigns haven't gone according to plan.
There have been no special measles vaccination campaigns since 2020, first because of Covid then because of the "political situation", Sajjad told BBC Bangla.
Bangladesh experienced political upheaval in 2024, when massive anti-government protests toppled its long-ruling leader Sheikh Hasina. An interim government took over after Hasina's ousting, and only in February this year did the country elect a new government.
A measles vaccination campaign was supposed to be held in April this year, "but it did not happen", Sajjad said.
A health official said procurement issues had led to a shortage of vaccines, including for measles, the Daily Star reported.
Many in Bangladesh have blamed the vaccine shortages on the former interim government, which oversaw a new vaccine procurement system.
But measles resurgences "are typically the result of these accumulated gaps rather than a single factor", Unicef said in its statement.
"Bangladesh has a strong history of high immunisation coverage, but even small disruptions can lead to the gradual accumulation of immunity gaps over time."
What is Bangladesh doing about it?
Along with international partners like Unicef and the World Health Organization (WHO), Bangladesh has launched an emergency vaccination campaign for measles and rubella , a milder disease with similar symptoms to measles.
This campaign, which started on Sunday, will be rolled out across 30 upazilas - sub-districts in Bangladesh - and targets more than 1.2 million children between six months and five years old.
The campaign will prioritise "children who have missed routine immunisation and are most vulnerable to severe illness and complications", according to Unicef.
There will also be a particular focus on Dhaka, the densely populated capital, and Cox's Bazar, home to crowded Rohingya refugee camps, Unicef said.
Besides the vaccination drive, health authorities are also publishing infographics that teach people how to identify and prevent measles.
What is measles?
Measles is a highly contagious airborne disease, which can lead to severe complication and death.
Common symptoms include:
- high fever
- sore, red and watery eyes
- coughing
- sneezing
In 2024, an estimated 95,000 people were killed by measles around the world - most of them children under five years old, according to the WHO.
Measles can be prevented through vaccination - but according to the WHO, 95% of the population has to be vaccinated in order to stop the disease from spreading.
Are measles cases rising around the world?
Over the past two decades, the number of global measles cases and deaths resulting from the disease have fallen sharply.
There were 11 million cases of measles worldwide in 2024 - a significant decrease from 38 million in 2000, according to the WHO.
But the organisation has warned about a resurgence in parts of the world as vaccination rates fall. In 2024 and 2025, the world saw the highest number of measles outbreaks in more than 20 years, according to medical journal The Lancet.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 17:08 · 国际,新闻,BBC,国际
Nancy Guthrie disappeared from her home in Tucson, Arizona, in what authorities believe was an abduction.
'Really feeling the love' - Savannah Guthrie returns to NBC as search for mother goes on
US television presenter Savannah Guthrie has returned to NBC's Today show, telling her co-anchors it was "good to be back", as the search for her mother continues.
It was her first appearance in the studio since 30 January, two days before her 84-year-old mother Nancy was reported missing.
Her co-anchors noted on Monday that many fans were standing outside the studios on a chilly New York morning carrying signs welcoming Guthrie back. "I'm really feeling the love," she said in response.
Investigators believe Nancy Guthrie, who was last seen on 31 January, was taken against her will from her home near Tucson, Arizona, but they have not shared a possible motive or arrested a suspect.
Before giving his typical weather report, NBC forecaster Al Roker blew her a kiss and said: "It's good to see you my dear."
Guthrie carried on with the news as usual, telling viewers about the Artemis moon mission and the National Collegiate Athletic Association men's basketball tournament finals.
Last month she said it was "part of my purpose right now" to return to work although she was unsure if she would still be able to do it.
On Easter Sunday, Savannah Guthrie reaffirmed her Christian faith in an Easter video message from a church in New York.
The NBC presenter, one of the most recognisable figures on morning television in the US, had temporarily stepped away from her anchoring duties after her mother's disappearance.
She also stood down from NBC's coverage of the Winter Olympics.
In an interview last month with Today, she said: "I can't not come back. This is my family."
She also raised the possibility that her own fame may have been behind her mother's disappearance, saying that thought was too much to bear.
Nancy Guthrie vanished without her medicines. She was dropped off at her home by relatives on the evening of 31 January and then failed to show up at a friend's house to watch a virtual Sunday service the following morning.
The family announced in February a $1m reward for information leading to her return.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 17:08 · 国际,新闻,BBC,国际
As the astronauts pass behind the Moon they will experience a moment of silence and solitude as communication with the Earth is blocked.
The 40 minutes when the Artemis crew loses contact with the Earth
No-one will have been further from home than the Artemis astronauts.
But as the Earth shrinks ever smaller in their rear-view mirror, they've had a constant connection with mission control in Houston, Texas. The calm words from the Nasa team have given the crew a comforting link with home.
That link is about to be lost.
As the astronauts pass behind the Moon at about 23:47 BST (18:47 EDT) on Monday, the radio and laser signals that allow the back-and-forth communication between the spacecraft and Earth will be blocked by the Moon itself.
For about 40 minutes, the four astronauts will be alone, each with their own thoughts and feelings, travelling through the darkness of space. A profound moment of solitude and silence.
Artemis pilot Victor Glover told us he hopes the world will use the time to come together.
"When we're behind the Moon, out of contact with everybody, let's take that as an opportunity," he told BBC News before the mission. "Let's pray, hope, send your good thoughts and feelings that we get back in contact with the crew."
More than 50 years ago, the Apollo astronauts also experienced the isolation brought by a loss of signal during their missions to the Moon.
Perhaps none more so than Apollo 11's Michael Collins.
In 1969, while Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin made history taking the first steps on the lunar surface, Collins was alone in the command module, orbiting the Moon.
As his craft passed behind the far side, contact with the pair on the lunar surface, as well as with mission control, vanished for 48 minutes.
He described the experience in his 1974 memoir Carrying the Fire, saying he felt "truly alone" and "isolated from any known life", but that he did not feel fear or loneliness.
In later interviews, he described the peace and tranquillity brought by the radio silence, saying it offered a break from the constant requests from mission control.
More on Artemis II
Back on Earth, the blackout will be a tense time for those with the job of maintaining contact with the spacecraft.
At the Goonhilly Earth Station in Cornwall, in the south-west of England, a huge antenna has been collecting signals from the Orion capsule, carefully pinpointing its position throughout its journey, and feeding this information back to Nasa HQ.
Matt Cosby, Goonhilly's chief technology officer, told the BBC: "This is the first time we're tracking a spacecraft with humans on it.
"We're going to get slightly nervous as it goes behind the Moon, and then we'll be very excited when we see it again, because we know that they're all safe."
But the hope is these dropouts in communications could soon become a thing of the past. And Cosby says that will be essential as Nasa – and other space agencies around the world – begin to build a Moon base and ramp up further exploration.
"For a sustainable presence on the Moon, you need the full comms - you need the full 24 hours a day, even on the far side, because the far side will want to be explored as well," he said.
Programmes like the European Space Agency's Moonlight are planning to launch a network of satellites around the Moon to provide continuous and reliable communication coverage in the future.
For the Artemis astronauts, their time without contact with the Earth will allow them to devote all of their attention to the Moon.
They'll spend the blackout dedicated to lunar observation – taking images, studying the Moon's geology and simply gazing at its splendour.
When they emerge from the Moon's shadow, and that signal is re-established, the world will breathe a collective sigh of relief.
And the history-making astronauts will be able to share their incredible views with everyone back home.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 01:07 · AI,技术,HackerNews,AI
OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
OpenAI’s shocking fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic
- OpenAI shares have become nearly impossible to sell on secondary markets as institutional investors rush to unload $600 million in holdings.
- Secondary market platforms report unprecedented demand for Anthropic equity, with bids valuing the company at roughly $600 billion — more than 50% higher than before.
- Anthropic’s focus on profitable enterprise clients contrasts with OpenAI’s high infrastructure spending, making the former a more attractive bet for investors.
OpenAI shares have fallen out of favor on the secondary market — in some cases, becoming almost impossible to unload — as investors pivot quickly to Anthropic, its biggest competitor.
Even as OpenAI raced in recent months to raise tens of billions of dollars, Next Round Capital founder Ken Smythe said his secondary marketplace was seeing a drop in demand for shares of the artificial intelligence giant. About a half-dozen institutional investors — including hedge funds and venture capital firms that hold large stakes — approached his company in recent weeks looking to sell about $600 million of OpenAI shares.
Last year, they would have been snatched up within days. But now, no one’s biting.
“We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares,” said Smythe, whose firm has handled $2.5 billion of transactions. Meanwhile, “buyers have indicated they have $2 billion of cash ready to deploy into Anthropic.”
Other marketplaces are also seeing record demand for Anthropic, including Augment and Hiive. The large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion has investors rushing to grab equity in the latter before it rises, according to Augment co-founder Adam Crawley.
“It’s just better risk-reward right now,” he said. “People are betting that Anthropic’s valuation will catch up with OpenAI’s. But if you buy OpenAI shares, it’s less clear what the return will be in the near term.”
Anthropic and OpenAI don’t allow investors to trade shares on the secondary market without their permission. Still, access to the shares is available on many platforms as investors sell their interests through other mechanisms such as special-purpose vehicles.
“OpenAI does not endorse or participate in any of these transactions, which are a violation of our transfer restrictions and may result in the invalidation of the underlying equity,” the firm wrote on its website.
Banks including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have begun offering OpenAI shares to wealth clients without charging carry fees, according to a person familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Goldman is charging its usual carry for clients interested in Anthropic. That fee is often roughly 15% to 20% of profits.
Representatives for the banks declined to comment. OpenAI and Anthropic didn’t comment.
On Tuesday, OpenAI announced it had put the finishing touches on its largest-ever fundraising, drawing $122 billion in backing from tech giants, venture capital funds and retail investors alike.
Primary fundraising and secondary sales don’t always follow the same playbook. In fundraising rounds, existing investors are often offered the chance to buy more shares to maintain their stakes, and instead of saying no — which founders may not like — they can buy in and then sell some of that exposure on the secondary market.
Both AI firms have grown rapidly in recent years, particularly after OpenAI’s 2022 debut of ChatGPT and Anthropic’s subsequent launch of Claude. Both companies are weighing plans to go public, with OpenAI’s listing expected as early as this year.
Some investors have grown cautious over OpenAI’s soaring operating costs. The company has committed to spend far more than Anthropic on infrastructure to support its AI ambitions in coming years. And while OpenAI touts a strong consumer base, it’s moving slowly on capturing more lucrative enterprise clients. Anthropic, meanwhile, has dominated that higher-margin market and, as a result, its growth trajectory appears to be stronger than OpenAI’s, Crawley said.
Meanwhile, Anthropic has other challenges. It’s suing the U.S. Department of Defense after the Pentagon designated the company a supply-chain risk and ordered a ban on government entities using its technology. And just this week, Anthropic had its second security slip-up in a matter of days, when it inadvertently released internal source code behind Claude.
Next Round sees bids for OpenAI coming in at a valuation of about $765 billion, a 10% discount from the previous $850 billion.
“The market is much more in demand for Anthropic,” Augment’s Crawley said.
His firm and Next Round are both seeing huge bids for Anthropic that value it at roughly $600 billion, more than 50% higher than its previous funding round. Meanwhile, Hiive has registered more than $1.6 billion of demand for Anthropic shares, also at a premium, said co-founder Prab Rattan.
“The demand
▸ 展开全文
04-06 01:07 · AI,技术,HackerNews,大模型,AI
Show HN: Mdarena – Benchmark your Claude.md against your own PRs
Benchmark your CLAUDE.md against your own PRs.
Most CLAUDE.md files are written blindly. Research shows they often reduce agent success rates and cost 20%+ more tokens. mdarena lets you measure whether yours helps or hurts, on tasks from your actual codebase.
pip install mdarena
# Mine 50 merged PRs into a test set
mdarena mine owner/repo --limit 50 --detect-tests
# Benchmark multiple CLAUDE.md files + baseline (no context)
mdarena run -c claude_v1.md -c claude_v2.md -c agents.md
# See who wins
mdarena report
mdarena mine -> Fetch merged PRs, filter, build task set
Auto-detect test commands from CI/package files
mdarena run -> For each task x condition:
- Checkout repo at pre-PR commit
- Baseline: all CLAUDE.md files stripped
- Context: inject CLAUDE.md, let Claude discover it
- Run tests if available, capture git diff
mdarena report -> Compare patches against gold (actual PR diff)
- Test pass/fail (same as SWE-bench)
- File/hunk overlap, cost, tokens
- Statistical significance (paired t-test)
mdarena can run your repo's actual tests to grade agent patches, the same way SWE-bench does it.
# Auto-detect from CI/CD
mdarena mine owner/repo --detect-tests
# Or specify manually
mdarena mine owner/repo --test-cmd "make test" --setup-cmd "npm install"
Parses .github/workflows/*.yml
, package.json
, pyproject.toml
, Cargo.toml
, and go.mod
. When tests aren't available, falls back to diff overlap scoring.
Pass a directory to benchmark a full CLAUDE.md tree:
mdarena run -c ./configs-v1/ -c ./configs-v2/
Each directory mirrors your repo structure. Baseline strips ALL CLAUDE.md and AGENTS.md files from the entire tree.
We ran mdarena against a large production monorepo: 20 merged PRs, Claude Opus 4.6, three conditions (bare baseline, existing CLAUDE.md, hand-written alternative). Patches graded against real test suites. Not string matching, not LLM-as-judge.
Key findings:
- The existing CLAUDE.md improved test resolution by ~27% over bare baseline
- A consolidated alternative that merged all per-directory guidance into one file performed no better than no CLAUDE.md at all
- On hard tasks, per-directory instruction files gave the agent targeted context, while the consolidated version introduced noise that caused regressions
The winning CLAUDE.md wasn't the longest or most detailed. It was the one that put the right context in front of the agent at the right time.
# Import SWE-bench tasks
pip install datasets
mdarena load-swebench lite --limit 50
mdarena run -c my_claude.md
# Or export your tasks as SWE-bench JSONL
mdarena export-swebench
Only benchmark repositories you trust. mdarena executes code from the repos it benchmarks (test commands run via shell=True
, Claude Code runs with --dangerously-skip-permissions
). Sandboxes are isolated temp directories under /tmp
but processes run as your user.
Benchmark integrity: Because tasks come from historical PRs, the gold patch is in the repo's git history. Claude 4 Sonnet exploited this against SWE-bench by walking future commits via tags. mdarena prevents this with history-free checkouts: git archive
exports a snapshot at base_commit
into a fresh single-commit repo. Future commits don't exist in the object database at all. See tests/test_isolated_checkout.py
for the integrity assertions.
git clone https://github.com/HudsonGri/mdarena.git
cd mdarena
uv sync
uv run pytest
uv run ruff check src/
See ROADMAP.md.
MIT. See LICENSE.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 01:07 · 中东,局势,AlJazeera,中东
Bahrain and the UAE also report attacks resulting in fires, which are put out quickly.
Kuwait says Iranian drone attacks have damaged two power and water desalination plants and sparked fires at two oil facilities but have not caused injuries.
Gulf countries have borne the brunt of Tehran’s response to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran since February 28.
Recommended Stories
list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Iran says US, Israel belong in Stone Age after Tehran university strike
- list 2 of 4Italy’s Meloni meets Qatar emir to discuss energy issues amid Iran war
- list 3 of 4Universities hit as US, Israel ramp up attacks on Iran’s infrastructure
- list 4 of 4‘Miraculous’: US rescues second pilot downed in Iran, Trump confirms
Fatima Abbas Johar Hayat, a spokesperson for Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy, said on Sunday that the “criminal aggression” caused “serious material damage” overnight to the two plants and the outage of two electricity-generating units.
The attacks are the latest to target civilian infrastructure in Kuwait. Other drone attacks overnight caused a fire at the Shuwaikh Oil Sector Complex and “significant damage” to a government office complex, though “no human casualties were recorded”.
Reporting from Kuwait City, Al Jazeera’s Malika Traina referred to the attacks as “devastating news” because “water desalination here and across the Gulf is extremely important. In Kuwait, around 90 percent of the country’s drinking water comes from these plants.”
Later on Sunday, the Kuwait Petroleum Corp reported “significant material losses” after Iranian drone attacks on several of its facilities, according to the KUNA news agency.
The attacks resulted in fires at several facilities, it said, adding that firefighters were deployed to prevent the blazes from spreading to other facilities. No injuries were reported, it added.
Alongside the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait has been at the “epicentre” of Iranian attacks over the past few days, Al Jazeera’s Victoria Gatenby said, reporting from Doha, Qatar.
“The concern here in the region is that if [US] President [Donald] Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, follow through on those threats to escalate attacks on Iran, the result may be that Tehran attacks similar facilities here in the Gulf,” Gatenby said.
Gulf patience ‘not unlimited’
Bahrain also faced Iranian attacks on Sunday.
Bahrain’s Gulf Petrochemical Industries Co said several of its units were subjected to an attack by Iranian drones while, earlier in the day, the country’s national oil company, Bapco Energies, said an oil tank at one of its storage facilities was hit.
Both attacks caused fires, but they were later brought under control and extinguished, Bahraini media reported.
No casualties were reported in either attack, and damage from both was being assessed.
Earlier, Bahrain’s Ministry of the Interior reported on the Bapco Energies fire without specifying where the blaze had broken out.
The Interior Ministry said civil defence crews “extinguished a fire in the facility” that broke out “as a result of the Iranian aggression”.
The announcement came an hour after Bahrain activated air raid sirens.
Authorities in neighbouring Abu Dhabi on Sunday also said they responded to several fires that broke out at the Borouge petrochemical plant and were caused by falling debris from the interception of an air attack.
“Operations at the plant have been immediately suspended pending a damage assessment,” a statement issued by the Abu Dhabi Media Office said.
No injuries have been reported so far, it added.
The UAE’s official news agency WAM later reported that authorities were responding with an incident after the Khor Fakkan port in the Gulf of Oman was targeted.
British maritime security agency UKMTO said “splashes from unknown projectiles” had been reported close to one container ship while it was loading in the key port near the Strait of Hormuz.
In peace time, about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the strategic waterway that links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
In comments released to the media, UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash said Abu Dhabi was ready to “join any American-led effort, international effort to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz”.
The Omani state news agency meanwhile reported that Oman and Iran had held talks on easing passage through the strait.
“The experts from both sides put forward a number of visions and proposals regarding it,” it said.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, intercepted missiles early on Sunday, the kingdom said.
“Iran has said that it is only really attacking US military bases and US assets in the region, but we know from what’s been happening over the past five weeks and from what Gulf leaders have been saying that they have very much been targeting civilian infrastructure and critical energy infrastructure in this region as well,” Gatenby said.
She said that while Gulf countries have shown “incredible restraint” in the face of attacks over the past five weeks, it is not because they lack the ab
▸ 展开全文
04-06 01:07 · 中东,局势,AlJazeera,中东
Iranian officials dismiss Trump’s ultimatum, condemn latest threats as ‘incitement to war crimes’.
Donald Trump has set a Tuesday deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face “hell”, saying the US will hit Iranian power plants and bridges.
Iran says it will respond “in kind” to any attacks on its infrastructure, with senior officials condemning the US president’s remarks as “incitement to war crimes”.
▸ 展开全文
04-06 01:06 · 国际,新闻,BBC,国际
The rescue could impact how Trump views a ground operation to take Kharg Island or to seize enriched uranium sites.
Trump declares victory after rescue but threats to US operation in Iran still loom
US President Donald Trump was swift to declare victory after the second crew member of a F-15 fighter jet downed over Iran was recovered, claiming that the dramatic and successful rescue in Iranian territory "proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority".
Observers, however, paint a more complicated picture of what this means for the US in Iran.
While the mission was a success, the events of the last few days - in which two aircraft were downed and at least one helicopter was hit by gunfire - highlight that threats to US aircraft and personnel remain even after weeks of heavy US and Israeli strikes against Iran's military infrastructure and boasts from the president that Tehran had "no anti-aircraft equipment" left.
Several Washington sources who spoke to the BBC speculated that the loss of aircraft and the complexity of the operation to recover the pilots could potentially dissuade Trump from any ground operation to take control of Iran's key oil export terminal at Kharg Island and other sites in the Gulf, or to seize highly enriched uranium buried deep underground in Iran.
These operations – scoped by military planners and presented to the president as options – are deeply complex and risk exposing US forces to lingering Iranian capabilities, including difficult-to-find man portable air defence systems, known as Manpads, which are shoulder-launched missiles most effective against low-flying aircraft.
On the other hand, the fact that US troops were able to enter a contested environment, and set up a forward airfield and refuelling point under the nose of the Iranians - then hold it for hours while two stuck aircraft were destroyed and replacements sent - might embolden him.
It could convince the administration that an airborne or amphibious operation against targets in Iran stands a good chance of success.
That message is one that would be heard, loud and clear, by US service members flying over Iranian skies as the conflict goes on, and by those preparing for a potential deployment.
Trump has also has sent mixed messages about the path forward, telling reporters in a series of phone calls on Sunday that he believes a "deal" with Iran could be just around the corner.
If that fails, he has said repeatedly on Truth Social, the clock is ticking on a self-imposed deadline to begin striking Iranian power plants and bridges.
If the Strait of Hormuz was not opened, he posted in an expletive-laden message on Sunday to the Iranian regime, they would be "living in Hell". In a brief phone interview with Fox, Trump also suggested he might move to "take" Iran's oil, without providing further details.
An expanded campaign against Iranian infrastructure and energy targets would represent an escalation, with human rights groups warning of the impact on civilians and potential war crimes.
The president's critics are likely to take it as a sign of Trump's frustration that the US has been unable to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global corridor for oil and other commodities.
So far, the president's supporters have rallied behind the administration and its effort to rescue the crew members.
For Trump, the rescue represents a "win" both in the eyes of the public and those inside the US military.
The rescue served to reinforce the administration's willingness to put other Americans in harm's way in an effort to abide by the ethos in the Soldier's Creed that no US service member would be abandoned.
But some - even fervent Maga supporters - have already grown uncomfortable with the prospect of an expensive, messy war with an unclear endgame which could lead to US casualties.
However, the recovery of the two pilots robbed Iran of what would have amounted to a massive propaganda victory.
The sight of US military personnel in Iranian captivity would have very likely become the primary war-related story in the US and hijacked Trump's narrative of a quick, clean victory.
Trump's comments over the weekend stand in contrast to several he made last week, including a televised address on 1 April, in which he suggested that the US had already created the conditions necessary for other countries to engage in the Strait. "Take it, protect it, use it for yourselves," he told allies.
Trump had also recently suggested that he was willing to "leave" Iran even if a deal eluded him.
But he now appears to have shifted course in the hopes that doubling down on the threat of devastating attacks on the country's core infrastructure can prompt Tehran's leadership to come to the table.
▸ 展开全文